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WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

6-4  |  Road

35
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

3-7  |  Home

19
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Jake Ference None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
0%
📊
N ILLINOIS
100%
W MICHIGAN --
N ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Western Michigan)
W MichiganWMU (-3.5) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

97.7%

N Illinois Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WMU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

WMU By 1-6 points

3.8%

WMU By 7-13 points

8.8%

NIU By 1-6 points

1.4%

NIU By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
38
WESTERN MICHIGAN
10
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
24
WESTERN MICHIGAN
28
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI W Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim N Illinois Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI W Michigan (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
B
Sim N Illinois (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o38.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Sim o38.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 WMU @ NIU 35 - 19
Nov 6, 2024 NIU @ WMU 42 - 28
Nov 14, 2023 WMU @ NIU 0 - 24
Nov 9, 2022 NIU @ WMU 24 - 21
Nov 23, 2021 WMU @ NIU 42 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Western Michigan: 0.9 vs Northern Illinois: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +12.8% more
Western Michigan: 19.4 vs Northern Illinois: 17.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Northern Illinois: 211.4 vs Western Michigan: 186.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 38.0 35
NIU Score 10.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 19.4 13.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 211.4 / 186.7 174.0 / 361.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.14 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 327.0 / 342.4 252.0 / 393.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
WMU
NIU
WMU
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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