Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Michigan @ Kent State CMU @ KENT

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

6-4  |  Road

28
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Dix Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

4-6  |  Home

16
Key Game
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
@
Maurice Stephens
KEY GAME

Maurice Stephens

#23 | Wide Receiver
Player
Declan Duley None-None
Maurice Stephens None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
0%
📊
KENT STATE
100%
C MICHIGAN --
KENT STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Central Michigan)
C MichiganCMU (-3.5) 0 Kent StateKENT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

78.4%

Kent State Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CMU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

CMU By 1-6 points

14.7%

CMU By 7-13 points

19.7%

KENT By 1-6 points

10.0%

KENT By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
13
KENT STATE
Simulated Score
24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
27
KENT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Kent State Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Sim Kent State (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 CMU @ KENT 28 - 16
Nov 10, 2021 KENT @ CMU 30 - 54
Nov 14, 2017 CMU @ KENT 42 - 23
Oct 29, 2016 KENT @ CMU 27 - 24
Nov 18, 2015 CMU @ KENT 27 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.0% more
Central Michigan: 153.0 vs Kent State: 81.2
Turnovers (L5) +39.3% more
Central Michigan: 1.4 vs Kent State: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +23.8% more
Central Michigan: 17.1 vs Kent State: 13.0
Total Yards (L5) +10.9% more
Central Michigan: 346.3 vs Kent State: 308.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 24.0 28
KENT Score 13.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.0 / 17.1 20.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 81.2 / 153.0 89.0 / 174.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 308.7 / 346.3 274.0 / 297.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
KENT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
CMU
KENT
CMU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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