Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ Buffalo M-OH @ BUFF

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

5-5  |  Road

37
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
UB Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

5-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Lynel Billups-Williams
KEY GAME

Lynel Billups-Williams

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
John Keough
KEY GAME

John Keough

#7 | Safety
Player
Lynel Billups-Williams None-None
John Keough None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
100%
📊
BUFFALO
0%
MIAMI OH --
BUFFALO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Buffalo)
Miami OHM-OH (-3.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

41.5%

Buffalo Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

M-OH By 1-6 points

15.3%

M-OH By 7-13 points

12.9%

BUFF By 1-6 points

17.0%

BUFF By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
0
MIAMI (OH)
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI (OH)
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Buffalo Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Buffalo Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Buffalo (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Buffalo (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o38.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 M-OH @ BUFF 37 - 20
Nov 15, 2023 BUFF @ M-OH 10 - 23
Oct 1, 2022 M-OH @ BUFF 20 - 24
Nov 9, 2021 BUFF @ M-OH 18 - 45
Nov 10, 2020 M-OH @ BUFF 10 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +92.0% more
Buffalo: 2.9 vs Miami (OH): 1.5
Total Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Buffalo: 366.9 vs Miami (OH): 319.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 0.0 37
BUFF Score 3.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 17.5 21.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 130.0 / 133.3 46.0 / 162.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 366.9 / 319.1 349.0 / 347.0
Turnovers 2.9 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
BUFF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
M-OH
BUFF
M-OH
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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