OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
13-1 | Road
126
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
2-11 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
PELICANS
100%
THUNDER
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
OKC By 1-7 points
26.2%
OKC By 8-14 points
16.9%
NO By 1-7 points
24.3%
NO By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
126
OKLAHOMA CITY
New Orleans
125
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
New Orleans
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pelicans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pelicans (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Pelicans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o225.5
Win
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 27, 2026
NO @ OKC
95 - 104
Nov 17, 2025
OKC @ NO
126 - 109
Nov 2, 2025
NO @ OKC
106 - 137
Apr 13, 2025
OKC @ NO
115 - 100
Feb 10, 2025
NO @ OKC
101 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.1% more
Oklahoma City: 4.8
vs
New Orleans: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+11.0% more
Oklahoma City: 25.5
vs
New Orleans: 22.7
Steals (L5)
+9.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.5
vs
New Orleans: 9.6
Rebounding (L5)
+8.8% more
Oklahoma City: 44.9
vs
New Orleans: 41.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
126.0
126
NO Score
125.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 39.1
43.0 / 40.0
Assists
22.7 / 25.5
21.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.8
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 49.7
49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 82.2
87.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
41.0 / 44.9
35.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.6 / 10.5
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
17.3 / 12.7
22.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
OKC
NO
OKC
ML
62%
98-61
70%
80-34
58%
48-35
48%
46-49
ATS
68%
107-51-1
73%
83-30-1
58%
48-35
48%
46-49
TTL
75%
119-40
67%
76-38
100%
83-0
100%
95-0
Contextual Game News
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…