COLGATE
RAIDERSCOLG
1-3 | Road
72
SIENA
SAINTSSIE
2-1 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
SAINTS
0%
RAIDERS
--
SAINTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Siena)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIE -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)
COLG By 1-7 points
0.3%
COLG By 8-14 points
0.0%
SIE By 1-7 points
2.2%
SIE By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Colgate
58
COLGATE
Siena
85
SIENA
Simulated Score
Colgate
68
COLGATE
Siena
73
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Saints
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Saints
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Saints (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Saints (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 17, 2025
COLG @ SIE
72 - 69
Nov 30, 2019
SIE @ COLG
62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+47.3% more
Siena: 3.3
vs
Colgate: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+45.7% more
Siena: 7.4
vs
Colgate: 5.1
Turnovers (L5)
+18.5% more
Siena: 11.6
vs
Colgate: 9.8
Rebounding (L5)
+17.9% more
Siena: 35.7
vs
Colgate: 30.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COLG Score
58.0
72
SIE Score
85.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.8 / 36.4
22.0 / 27.0
Assists
12.8 / 12.6
11.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.2
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 48.1
43.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 82.4
83.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 30.3
33.0 / 27.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.1
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 9.8
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +4.9
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
COLG
SIE
COLG
ML
66%
23-12
59%
19-13
48%
16-17
69%
22-10
ATS
66%
23-12
72%
23-9
48%
16-17
70%
23-10
TTL
54%
19-16
78%
25-7
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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