MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
3-0 | Road
83
KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
3-1 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
WILDCATS
100%
SPARTANS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
MSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
MSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
UK By 1-7 points
4.0%
UK By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan State
89
MICHIGAN STATE
Kentucky
73
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Michigan State
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Kentucky
78
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
MSU @ UK
83 - 66
Nov 15, 2022
UK @ MSU
77 - 86
Nov 5, 2019
MSU @ UK
62 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+14.6% more
Michigan State: 4.7
vs
Kentucky: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+12.0% more
Kentucky: 11.7
vs
Michigan State: 10.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.9%
Kentucky: 35.5%
vs
Michigan State: 23.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Kentucky: 52.8%
vs
Michigan State: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSU Score
89.0
83
UK Score
73.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 23.7
23.0 / 50.0
Assists
19.2 / 19.1
13.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.7
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.8 / 43.8
35.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
73.0 / 70.5
86.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 43.2
28.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.3 / 6.3
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 10.4
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
UK
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
UK
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
MSU
UK
MSU
ML
71%
25-10
71%
25-10
72%
23-9
61%
20-13
ATS
83%
29-6
71%
25-10
72%
23-9
61%
20-13
TTL
63%
22-13
49%
17-18
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
Duke Demolishes Belmont by 40 in Preseason Blowout
.jpg)
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…