KANSAS
JAYHAWKSKU
3-1 | Road
66
DUKE
BLUE DEVILSDUKE
4-0 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
JAYHAWKS
100%
BLUE DEVILS
0%
JAYHAWKS
--
BLUE DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Duke)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)
KU By 1-7 points
0.3%
KU By 8-14 points
0.0%
DUKE By 1-7 points
2.2%
DUKE By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas
56
KANSAS
Duke
83
DUKE
Simulated Score
Kansas
78
KANSAS
Duke
75
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Devils
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jayhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Devils (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Jayhawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u148.0
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
KU @ DUKE
66 - 78
Nov 26, 2024
KU @ DUKE
75 - 72
Nov 15, 2022
DUKE @ KU
64 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+41.3% more
Duke: 9.1
vs
Kansas: 6.4
Assists (L5)
+33.8% more
Duke: 20.8
vs
Kansas: 15.5
Blocks (L5)
+12.8% more
Duke: 7.1
vs
Kansas: 6.3
Rebounding (L5)
+11.8% more
Duke: 44.7
vs
Kansas: 40.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KU Score
56.0
66
DUKE Score
83.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 35.0
27.0 / 19.0
Assists
20.8 / 15.5
17.0 / 15.0
Blocks
7.1 / 6.3
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.7 / 48.7
47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 72.6
65.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
44.7 / 40.0
41.0 / 30.0
Steals
9.1 / 6.4
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 13.8
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
DUKE
Advantage
35-3-0
(92.1%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
DUKE
20-18-0
(52.6%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -4.1
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
KU
DUKE
KU
ML
71%
27-11
57%
20-15
73%
24-9
68%
21-10
ATS
79%
30-8
49%
17-18
73%
24-9
68%
21-10
TTL
47%
18-20
60%
21-14
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…