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ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

2-1  |  Road

66
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 9:00 PM ET
CU Events Center
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

3-0  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
BUFFALOES
0%
HORNETS --
BUFFALOES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Colorado)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 BuffaloesCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

0.0%

Buffaloes Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLO -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

ALST By 1-7 points

0.0%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.0%

COLO By 1-7 points

0.1%

COLO By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
56
ALABAMA STATE
95
COLORADO
Simulated Score
58
ALABAMA STATE
85
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buffaloes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes (+22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim Buffaloes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 ALST @ COLO 66 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +19.0%
Colorado: 74.8% vs Alabama State: 55.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Colorado: 48.8% vs Alabama State: 45.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Colorado: 35.0% vs Alabama State: 32.3%
Steals (L5) +48.6% more
Alabama State: 12.4 vs Colorado: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 56.0 66
COLO Score 95.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 32.3 38.0 / 44.0
Assists 16.0 / 19.7 20.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.6 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 45.2 54.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 55.8 78.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 45.1 46.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.4 / 12.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 12.1 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
COLO Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
COLO Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
ALST
COLO
ALST
ML
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
69% 22-10
76% 19-6
ATS
73% 24-9
65% 20-11
69% 22-10
76% 19-6
TTL
45% 15-18
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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