Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Skyhawks @ Cyclones STO @ ISU

STONEHILL

SKYHAWKSSTO

1-5  |  Road

57
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

4-0  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
📊
CYCLONES
0%
SKYHAWKS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Iowa State)
SkyhawksSTO (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

0.1%

Cyclones Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

STO By 1-7 points

0.1%

STO By 8-14 points

0.0%

ISU By 1-7 points

0.6%

ISU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
52
STONEHILL
84
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
53
STONEHILL
84
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cyclones Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cyclones (+39.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 STO @ ISU 57 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +190.3% more
Iowa State: 11.1 vs Stonehill: 3.8
Assists (L5) +34.4% more
Iowa State: 18.2 vs Stonehill: 13.5
Blocks (L5) +13.6% more
Iowa State: 3.9 vs Stonehill: 3.5
Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Iowa State: 52.1% vs Stonehill: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STO Score 52.0 57
ISU Score 84.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 31.6 33.0 / 37.0
Assists 18.2 / 13.5 15.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.5 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 52.1 / 42.6 59.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 70.6 63.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 38.9 35.0 / 27.0
Steals 11.1 / 3.8 14.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 15.1 7.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STO
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STO
14-15-2 (48.3%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5% Total +/-: -4.0
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
STO
ISU
STO
ML
57% 21-16
45% 15-18
76% 26-8
70% 23-10
ATS
62% 23-14
39% 13-20
76% 26-8
70% 23-10
TTL
54% 20-17
55% 18-15
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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