Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Bulldogs SUU @ GONZ

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

1-3  |  Road

50
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 9:00 PM ET
McCarthey Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

4-0  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
184.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Gonzaga)
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

0.0%

Bulldogs Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

SUU By 1-7 points

0.0%

SUU By 8-14 points

0.0%

GONZ By 1-7 points

0.1%

GONZ By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SOUTHERN UTAH
111
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
63
SOUTHERN UTAH
92
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o160.5 Win
Proj Total: 184.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 SUU @ GONZ 50 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.2% more
Gonzaga: 18.5 vs Southern Utah: 15.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Gonzaga: 31.9% vs Southern Utah: 27.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Gonzaga: 48.2% vs Southern Utah: 46.0%
Blocks (L5) +25.4% more
Southern Utah: 5.3 vs Gonzaga: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 73.0 50
GONZ Score 111.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 27.6 57.0 / 16.0
Assists 18.5 / 15.4 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.3 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 46.0 68.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 72.8 80.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 42.9 / 42.1 44.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.6 18.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 13.5 9.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
SUU
GONZ
SUU
ML
71% 25-10
61% 19-12
69% 20-9
68% 21-10
ATS
69% 24-11
71% 22-9
69% 20-9
69% 22-10
TTL
57% 20-15
52% 16-15
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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