Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Gauchos LMU @ UCSB

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

6-0  |  Road

78
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 9:00 PM ET
The Thunderdome
View Odds Details →

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

3-1  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
GAUCHOS
100%
LIONS --
GAUCHOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Loyola Marymount)
LionsLMU (-3.5) 0 GauchosUCSB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

88.5%

Gauchos Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LMU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LMU)

LMU By 1-7 points

20.1%

LMU By 8-14 points

27.2%

UCSB By 1-7 points

8.0%

UCSB By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
80
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
68
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
70
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
75
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gauchos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Gauchos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 LMU @ UCSB 78 - 74
Dec 18, 2024 UCSB @ LMU 58 - 60
Dec 16, 2023 UCSB @ LMU 68 - 59
Dec 12, 2020 UCSB @ LMU 76 - 81
Dec 7, 2020 LMU @ UCSB 58 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.2% more
Loyola Marymount: 12.0 vs UC Santa Barbara: 10.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Loyola Marymount: 51.8% vs UC Santa Barbara: 47.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +10.8%
UC Santa Barbara: 74.2% vs Loyola Marymount: 63.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LMU Score 80.0 78
UCSB Score 68.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.3 / 39.8 29.0 / 44.0
Assists 16.3 / 16.5 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.3 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 51.8 38.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 63.4 71.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 34.0 41.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.3 5.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 12.0 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
UCSB Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LMU Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
UCSB
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
LMU
UCSB
LMU
ML
59% 19-13
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
50% 16-16
ATS
62% 20-12
47% 15-17
72% 23-9
50% 16-16
TTL
47% 15-17
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 13 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 1 hour ago
Lions Edge Jets 31-24: Gibbs' Hat Trick, TeSlaa's Breakout, and …
si 1 week, 4 days ago
Lions' Draft Radar: Five College Standouts to Watch in Week 4
si 1 week, 5 days ago
Lions Edge Saints in Overtime Thriller: Winners and Losers from …
si 3 weeks, 4 days ago