INDIANA
PACERSIND
1-12 | Road
112
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
11-2 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
PISTONS
100%
PACERS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
3.3%
IND By 8-14 points
10.7%
DET By 1-7 points
0.5%
DET By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
132
INDIANA
Detroit
107
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Indiana
109
INDIANA
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-11)
Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DET @ IND
133 - 121
Jan 17, 2026
IND @ DET
78 - 121
Nov 24, 2025
DET @ IND
122 - 117
Nov 17, 2025
IND @ DET
112 - 127
Jan 29, 2025
DET @ IND
119 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.4%
Indiana: 80.4%
vs
Detroit: 73.1%
Steals (L5)
+106.3% more
Detroit: 11.2
vs
Indiana: 5.4
Blocks (L5)
+37.5% more
Detroit: 5.5
vs
Indiana: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+28.1% more
Detroit: 28.3
vs
Indiana: 22.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
132.0
112
DET Score
107.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 30.2
26.0 / 29.0
Assists
28.3 / 22.1
29.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.0
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 40.5
55.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 80.4
73.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
46.1 / 40.8
43.0 / 43.0
Steals
11.2 / 5.4
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 13.6
17.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
IND
DET
IND
ML
55%
64-53
48%
47-50
49%
47-49
54%
45-38
ATS
53%
60-54-3
59%
57-40
49%
47-49
54%
45-38
TTL
60%
70-46-1
54%
52-45
100%
96-0
100%
83-0
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