NEW YORK
KNICKSNY
8-4 | Road
113
MIAMI
HEATMIA
7-6 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
0%
HEAT
100%
KNICKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)
NY By 1-7 points
26.8%
NY By 8-14 points
18.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
104
NEW YORK
Miami
102
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
109
NEW YORK
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Knicks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Knicks (-1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u244.5
Win
Proj Total: 206.0
D
Sim
u244.5
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
MIA @ NY
125 - 132
Nov 17, 2025
NY @ MIA
113 - 115
Nov 14, 2025
MIA @ NY
132 - 140
Oct 26, 2025
NY @ MIA
107 - 115
Mar 17, 2025
MIA @ NY
95 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.9% more
New York: 9.2
vs
Miami: 6.9
Blocks (L5)
+83.8% more
Miami: 5.2
vs
New York: 2.8
Turnovers (L5)
+22.8% more
Miami: 14.1
vs
New York: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NY Score
104.0
113
MIA Score
102.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 38.7
40.0 / 25.0
Assists
29.9 / 28.2
29.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.2 / 2.8
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 47.0
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
78.3 / 78.0
85.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.7 / 43.9
40.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.9 / 9.2
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 11.5
14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY
Advantage
70-32-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY
Advantage
58-44-0
(56.9%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: -1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NY
MIA
NY
ML
48%
46-50
61%
114-72
59%
48-34
56%
57-45
ATS
51%
49-47
67%
124-62
59%
48-34
56%
57-45
TTL
59%
57-39
72%
133-53
100%
82-0
100%
102-0
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