CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
4-9 | Road
108
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
8-5 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
HORNETS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CHA By 1-7 points
26.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
25.3%
TOR By 1-7 points
15.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
107
CHARLOTTE
Toronto
100
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Charlotte
110
CHARLOTTE
Toronto
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u240.0
Win
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u240.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
TOR @ CHA
97 - 96
Dec 5, 2025
CHA @ TOR
111 - 86
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ CHA
111 - 118
Nov 17, 2025
CHA @ TOR
108 - 110
Apr 9, 2025
CHA @ TOR
96 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+21.3% more
Charlotte: 15.4
vs
Toronto: 12.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.2%
Charlotte: 82.2%
vs
Toronto: 74.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Charlotte: 37.0%
vs
Toronto: 30.8%
Steals (L5)
+26.0% more
Toronto: 8.4
vs
Charlotte: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
107.0
108
TOR Score
100.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 37.0
40.0 / 25.0
Assists
29.6 / 25.2
25.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.4
7.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
52.1 / 44.2
50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 82.2
75.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
43.4 / 42.3
43.0 / 48.0
Steals
8.4 / 6.7
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 15.4
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHA
TOR
CHA
ML
55%
57-47
61%
60-39
55%
48-39
48%
40-44
ATS
61%
62-40-2
60%
59-40
55%
48-39
48%
40-44
TTL
60%
62-42
58%
57-42
100%
87-0
100%
84-0
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