Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawks @ Quakers JOES @ PENN

SAINT JOSEPH'S

HAWKSJOES

2-1  |  Road

74
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 7:00 PM ET
The Palestra
View Odds Details →

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

1-2  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
QUAKERS
100%
HAWKS --
QUAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
PENNSYLVANIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HawksJOES (-3.5) 0 QuakersPENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

34.5%

Quakers Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PENN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PENN)

JOES By 1-7 points

27.4%

JOES By 8-14 points

21.6%

PENN By 1-7 points

20.1%

PENN By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
92
SAINT JOSEPH'S
88
PENNSYLVANIA
Simulated Score
67
SAINT JOSEPH'S
75
PENNSYLVANIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Quakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Quakers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Quakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 JOES @ PENN 74 - 83
Nov 15, 2024 JOES @ PENN 86 - 69
Nov 10, 2023 PENN @ JOES 61 - 69
Nov 30, 2022 JOES @ PENN 85 - 80
Dec 8, 2021 PENN @ JOES 71 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.7% more
Saint Joseph's: 5.2 vs Pennsylvania: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Saint Joseph's: 82.1% vs Pennsylvania: 77.6%
Assists (L5) +41.3% more
Pennsylvania: 15.6 vs Saint Joseph's: 11.0
Steals (L5) +34.5% more
Pennsylvania: 6.9 vs Saint Joseph's: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JOES Score 92.0 74
PENN Score 88.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 24.9 44.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.6 / 11.0 10.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.7 / 5.2 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 38.3 45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 82.1 83.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 39.4 41.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.2 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 12.6 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
PENN
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
PENN
--
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.3
PENN
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PENN
JOES
PENN
JOES
ML
53% 16-14
51% 18-17
76% 22-7
61% 20-13
ATS
63% 19-11
60% 21-14
76% 22-7
61% 20-13
TTL
70% 21-9
54% 19-16
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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