Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Leopards @ Mountaineers LAF @ WVU

LAFAYETTE

LEOPARDSLAF

1-3  |  Road

59
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 7:00 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

4-0  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
LEOPARDS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
LEOPARDS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (West Virginia)
LeopardsLAF (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Leopards Cover

38.2%

Mountaineers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WVU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

LAF By 1-7 points

21.6%

LAF By 8-14 points

10.7%

WVU By 1-7 points

27.2%

WVU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
61
LAFAYETTE
64
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
59
LAFAYETTE
81
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+23.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 LAF @ WVU 59 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +63.2% more
West Virginia: 3.4 vs Lafayette: 2.1
Steals (L5) +55.2% more
West Virginia: 7.8 vs Lafayette: 5.1
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
West Virginia: 70.0% vs Lafayette: 66.6%
Assists (L5) +14.5% more
Lafayette: 14.3 vs West Virginia: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAF Score 61.0 59
WVU Score 64.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 30.9 45.0 / 45.0
Assists 12.2 / 14.3 19.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 43.1 50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 66.6 67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 33.4 36.0 / 25.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 11.3 10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAF
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAF
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +1.0
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
LAF
WVU
LAF
ML
63% 22-13
53% 17-15
76% 26-8
59% 19-13
ATS
60% 21-14
56% 18-14
76% 26-8
59% 19-13
TTL
40% 14-21
50% 16-16
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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