SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
2-1 | Road
85
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
2-2 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
0%
BISON
100%
SALUKIS
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Southern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)
SIU By 1-7 points
8.0%
SIU By 8-14 points
18.6%
NDSU By 1-7 points
1.7%
NDSU By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Illinois
79
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
North Dakota State
59
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
Southern Illinois
69
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
North Dakota State
74
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Salukis
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Salukis (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 17, 2025
SIU @ NDSU
85 - 92
Nov 18, 2024
NDSU @ SIU
44 - 69
Dec 19, 2023
NDSU @ SIU
63 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+9.1% more
Southern Illinois: 42.9
vs
North Dakota State: 39.0
Turnovers (L5)
+8.7% more
Southern Illinois: 10.5
vs
North Dakota State: 9.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Southern Illinois: 50.5%
vs
North Dakota State: 48.2%
Steals (L5)
+101.2% more
North Dakota State: 10.2
vs
Southern Illinois: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIU Score
79.0
85
NDSU Score
59.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 30.9
46.0 / 21.0
Assists
18.9 / 15.3
19.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.1 / 3.0
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 50.5
45.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
80.6 / 63.0
84.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 42.9
29.0 / 37.0
Steals
10.2 / 5.1
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 10.5
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
SIU
NDSU
SIU
ML
49%
17-18
53%
17-15
59%
20-14
47%
15-17
ATS
54%
19-16
56%
18-14
59%
20-14
47%
15-17
TTL
43%
15-20
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
