Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Hurricane @ Wildcats TLSA @ KSU

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

3-1  |  Road

83
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

4-0  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Golden HurricaneTLSA (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Hurricane Cover

34.5%

Wildcats Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around KSU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

TLSA By 1-7 points

27.4%

TLSA By 8-14 points

21.6%

KSU By 1-7 points

20.1%

KSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
57
TULSA
53
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
65
TULSA
78
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Hurricane Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 TLSA @ KSU 83 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.8% more
Tulsa: 37.8 vs Kansas State: 32.6
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Tulsa: 73.0% vs Kansas State: 70.4%
Blocks (L5) +39.6% more
Kansas State: 4.0 vs Tulsa: 2.9
Assists (L5) +27.6% more
Kansas State: 19.2 vs Tulsa: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 57.0 83
KSU Score 53.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.8 / 38.0 21.0 / 27.0
Assists 19.2 / 15.0 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.9 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 54.8 / 46.8 44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 73.0 90.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 37.8 40.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.0 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 12.2 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
TLSA
KSU
TLSA
ML
59% 19-13
66% 25-13
69% 22-10
64% 23-13
ATS
62% 20-12
74% 28-10
69% 22-10
64% 23-13
TTL
47% 15-17
58% 22-16
100% 32-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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