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GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

1-4  |  Road

62
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

3-1  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
SUN DEVILS
0%
PANTHERS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Arizona State)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

18.4%

Sun Devils Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ASU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

GAST By 1-7 points

12.2%

GAST By 8-14 points

4.0%

ASU By 1-7 points

24.3%

ASU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
GEORGIA STATE
85
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
76
GEORGIA STATE
65
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sun Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sun Devils (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 GAST @ ASU 62 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.9% more
Georgia State: 12.9 vs Arizona State: 10.4
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Georgia State: 40.4 vs Arizona State: 34.4
Blocks (L5) +10.5% more
Georgia State: 4.6 vs Arizona State: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5) +4.4%
Georgia State: 72.6% vs Arizona State: 68.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 76.0 62
ASU Score 85.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 35.3 21.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.0 / 13.5 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.6 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 40.5 47.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 72.6 72.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 40.4 37.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.1 / 6.3 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 12.9 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
ASU Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
GAST
ASU
GAST
ML
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
71% 22-9
ATS
52% 17-16
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
71% 22-9
TTL
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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