VCU
RAMSVCU
2-2 | Road
79
NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
4-0 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
100%
WOLFPACK
0%
RAMS
--
WOLFPACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (NC State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)
VCU By 1-7 points
10.7%
VCU By 8-14 points
3.3%
NCSU By 1-7 points
23.0%
NCSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
VCU
77
VCU
NC State
87
NC STATE
Simulated Score
VCU
68
VCU
NC State
72
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolfpack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolfpack
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolfpack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Wolfpack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 17, 2025
VCU @ NCSU
79 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.7% more
NC State: 18.2
vs
VCU: 16.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
NC State: 77.9%
vs
VCU: 69.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
NC State: 50.8%
vs
VCU: 44.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
NC State: 40.7%
vs
VCU: 36.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VCU Score
77.0
79
NCSU Score
87.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 36.0
38.0 / 31.0
Assists
18.2 / 16.0
11.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.0 / 6.2
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.8 / 44.1
46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 69.2
82.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 38.1
45.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.1 / 7.8
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 14.7
17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VCU
Advantage
28-8-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
NCSU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VCU
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
NCSU
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
VCU
NCSU
VCU
ML
59%
20-14
72%
26-10
55%
18-15
67%
22-11
ATS
71%
24-10
81%
29-7
55%
18-15
67%
22-11
TTL
71%
24-10
58%
21-15
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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