Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Greyhounds @ Stags L-MD @ FAIR

LOYOLA MARYLAND

GREYHOUNDSL-MD

1-2  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 2:00 PM ET
Leo D. Mahoney Arena
View Odds Details →

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

2-2  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
GREYHOUNDS
100%
📊
STAGS
0%
GREYHOUNDS --
STAGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Fairfield)
GreyhoundsL-MD (-3.5) 0 StagsFAIR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Greyhounds Cover

38.2%

Stags Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

L-MD By 1-7 points

21.6%

L-MD By 8-14 points

10.7%

FAIR By 1-7 points

27.2%

FAIR By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
61
LOYOLA MARYLAND
64
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
71
LOYOLA MARYLAND
74
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stags Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stags Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stags (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Stags (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 L-MD @ FAIR 82 - 85
Nov 28, 2021 L-MD @ FAIR 75 - 70
Nov 17, 2019 FAIR @ L-MD 75 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +37.8% more
Fairfield: 5.3 vs Loyola Maryland: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5) +19.0%
Fairfield: 76.0% vs Loyola Maryland: 57.1%
Rebounding (L5) +15.5% more
Fairfield: 41.1 vs Loyola Maryland: 35.6
Turnovers (L5) +10.6% more
Fairfield: 11.1 vs Loyola Maryland: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
L-MD Score 61.0 82
FAIR Score 64.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 34.6 29.0 / 29.0
Assists 9.4 / 12.1 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.3 / 3.8 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 36.3 / 45.0 49.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 57.1 58.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 35.6 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.8 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 10.0 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
L-MD
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
L-MD Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
L-MD
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +4.5
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
L-MD
FAIR
L-MD
ML
55% 18-15
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
ATS
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
TTL
48% 16-17
44% 14-18
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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