Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Rockets ORL @ HOU

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

7-6  |  Road

113
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

8-3  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
MAGIC --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Orlando)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

98.6%

Rockets Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

ORL By 1-7 points

5.8%

ORL By 8-14 points

15.3%

HOU By 1-7 points

1.1%

HOU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
111
ORLANDO
89
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
105
ORLANDO
110
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Magic Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Magic (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u223.0 Loss
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim u223.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 HOU @ ORL 113 - 108
Nov 16, 2025 ORL @ HOU 113 - 117
Mar 19, 2025 HOU @ ORL 116 - 108
Mar 10, 2025 ORL @ HOU 84 - 97
Apr 9, 2024 ORL @ HOU 106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
Orlando: 15.8 vs Houston: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Orlando: 81.8% vs Houston: 76.7%
Steals (L5) +77.3% more
Houston: 11.2 vs Orlando: 6.3
Assists (L5) +11.0% more
Houston: 26.2 vs Orlando: 23.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 111.0 113
HOU Score 89.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.8 / 34.8 40.0 / 32.0
Assists 26.2 / 23.6 19.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.9 4.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 46.7 42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 81.8 86.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 48.3 / 44.6 60.0 / 38.0
Steals 11.2 / 6.3 4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 15.8 15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL Advantage
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ORL
HOU
ORL
ML
61% 69-44
61% 65-42
59% 51-35
56% 51-40
ATS
62% 70-43
64% 68-38-1
59% 51-35
56% 51-40
TTL
51% 58-55
57% 61-46
100% 86-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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