Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Mavericks POR @ DAL

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

6-6  |  Road

133
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

3-10  |  Home

138
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Portland)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

99.9%

Mavericks Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

POR By 1-7 points

0.8%

POR By 8-14 points

4.0%

DAL By 1-7 points

0.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
132
PORTLAND
101
DALLAS
Simulated Score
107
PORTLAND
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.0 Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim u237.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 DAL @ POR 100 - 93
Dec 29, 2025 DAL @ POR 122 - 125
Nov 16, 2025 POR @ DAL 133 - 138
Jan 9, 2025 POR @ DAL 111 - 117
Dec 28, 2024 DAL @ POR 122 - 126
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Portland: 34.5% vs Dallas: 29.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
Portland: 74.0% vs Dallas: 69.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Portland: 48.0% vs Dallas: 45.2%
Blocks (L5) +127.6% more
Dallas: 7.3 vs Portland: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 132.0 133
DAL Score 101.0 138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 34.5 44.0 / 30.0
Assists 23.4 / 21.0 33.0 / 26.0
Blocks 7.3 / 3.2 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 48.0 51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 74.0 68.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 46.8 / 40.2 47.0 / 53.0
Steals 10.0 / 5.3 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 19.3 / 15.3 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
POR
DAL
POR
ML
62% 63-39
53% 56-49
54% 44-37
55% 49-40
ATS
67% 68-34
62% 65-39-1
54% 44-37
55% 49-40
TTL
59% 60-41-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 81-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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