Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Beacons BRY @ VAL

BRYANT

BULLDOGSBRY

1-2  |  Road

50
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 1:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

2-1  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
BEACONS
100%
BULLDOGS --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsBRY (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

42.1%

Beacons Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAL +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)

BRY By 1-7 points

26.8%

BRY By 8-14 points

18.6%

VAL By 1-7 points

23.0%

VAL By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
60
BRYANT
58
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
68
BRYANT
72
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beacons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beacons (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Beacons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 BRY @ VAL 50 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
Bryant: 12.3 vs Valparaiso: 9.6
Steals (L5) +19.6% more
Bryant: 7.7 vs Valparaiso: 6.2
Assists (L5) +11.9% more
Bryant: 12.3 vs Valparaiso: 10.9
Blocks (L5) +11.3% more
Bryant: 4.8 vs Valparaiso: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRY Score 60.0 50
VAL Score 58.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 28.7 38.0 / 21.0
Assists 10.9 / 12.3 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.8 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 37.2 / 39.8 39.0 / 28.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 73.4 64.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 37.2 42.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.7 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 12.3 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRY
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -7.6 ATS +/-: -4.2
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRY
11-18-0 (37.9%)
Margin: -7.6 ATS +/-: -4.2
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BRY
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: -1.7
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
BRY
VAL
BRY
ML
48% 16-17
70% 21-9
61% 20-13
80% 24-6
ATS
52% 17-16
73% 22-8
61% 20-13
80% 24-6
TTL
61% 20-13
67% 20-10
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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