Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Bears SAM @ CARK

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

2-2  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 2:00 PM ET
Farris Center
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

1-2  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BULLDOGS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Samford)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 BearsCARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

91.9%

Bears Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAM -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

SAM By 1-7 points

16.9%

SAM By 8-14 points

26.2%

CARK By 1-7 points

5.8%

CARK By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SAMFORD
65
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
68
SAMFORD
82
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 SAM @ CARK 84 - 77
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.2%
Samford: 35.7% vs Central Arkansas: 23.5%
Assists (L5) +8.0% more
Samford: 14.7 vs Central Arkansas: 13.5
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Samford: 43.4% vs Central Arkansas: 38.4%
Steals (L5) +22.7% more
Central Arkansas: 6.7 vs Samford: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 79.0 84
CARK Score 65.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.5 / 35.7 27.0 / 34.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.7 9.0 / 19.0
Blocks 1.7 / 1.4 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 38.4 / 43.4 43.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 75.3 57.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 36.4 46.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.7 / 5.5 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 10.1 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
SAM
CARK
SAM
ML
67% 22-11
65% 20-11
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
ATS
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
TTL
50% 16-16-1
35% 11-20
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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