TROY
TROJANSTROY
3-2 | Road
85
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
3-2 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
MATADORS
0%
TROJANS
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
TROY By 1-7 points
21.6%
TROY By 8-14 points
10.7%
CSUN By 1-7 points
27.2%
CSUN By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
86
TROY
Cal State Northridge
89
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
Troy
68
TROY
Cal State Northridge
75
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Matadors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Matadors (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 16, 2025
TROY @ CSUN
85 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+25.9% more
Cal State Northridge: 17.3
vs
Troy: 13.8
Rebounding (L5)
+13.1% more
Cal State Northridge: 42.4
vs
Troy: 37.5
Blocks (L5)
+54.8% more
Troy: 3.1
vs
Cal State Northridge: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+52.4% more
Troy: 11.6
vs
Cal State Northridge: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
86.0
85
CSUN Score
89.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 34.2
35.0 / 32.0
Assists
14.0 / 16.8
16.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.4 / 3.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 45.5
57.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
68.5 / 74.8
69.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 37.5
42.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.5 / 11.6
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
17.3 / 13.8
14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
CSUN
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
TROY
CSUN
TROY
ML
58%
19-14
59%
20-14
67%
22-11
61%
20-13
ATS
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
67%
22-11
61%
20-13
TTL
58%
19-14
56%
19-15
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
