Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Seahawks @ Retrievers WAG @ UMBC

WAGNER

SEAHAWKSWAG

0-3  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 12:00 PM ET
Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena
View Odds Details →

UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

2-1  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
0%
📊
RETRIEVERS
100%
SEAHAWKS --
RETRIEVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SeahawksWAG (-3.5) 0 RetrieversUMBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seahawks Cover

46.0%

Retrievers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMBC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)

WAG By 1-7 points

26.2%

WAG By 8-14 points

16.9%

UMBC By 1-7 points

24.3%

UMBC By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
81
WAGNER
80
UMBC
Simulated Score
69
WAGNER
72
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seahawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Retrievers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Retrievers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Retrievers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 WAG @ UMBC 70 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.1% more
UMBC: 2.8 vs Wagner: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5) +15.6%
UMBC: 69.8% vs Wagner: 54.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
UMBC: 48.8% vs Wagner: 40.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
UMBC: 40.7% vs Wagner: 37.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAG Score 81.0 70
UMBC Score 80.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 37.7 23.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.6 / 14.0 10.0 / 3.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 40.2 40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 54.2 69.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 35.2 42.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.9 / 5.3 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 13.1 18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-: +2.1
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-: +2.1
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.4
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
WAG
UMBC
WAG
ML
58% 18-13
63% 19-11
55% 17-14
57% 17-13
ATS
68% 21-10
60% 18-12
55% 17-14
57% 17-13
TTL
39% 12-19
53% 16-14
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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