Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Bearcats MSM @ CIN

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

1-2  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 6:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Arena
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

3-0  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
BEARCATS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BEARCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Cincinnati)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 BearcatsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

30.9%

Bearcats Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

MSM By 1-7 points

18.6%

MSM By 8-14 points

8.0%

CIN By 1-7 points

27.2%

CIN By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
70
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
61
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
82
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bearcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 MSM @ CIN 55 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +148.7% more
Cincinnati: 4.7 vs Mount St. Mary's: 1.9
Steals (L5) +120.1% more
Cincinnati: 8.1 vs Mount St. Mary's: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +11.1% more
Cincinnati: 17.2 vs Mount St. Mary's: 15.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Cincinnati: 36.0% vs Mount St. Mary's: 31.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 65.0 55
CIN Score 70.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 31.8 21.0 / 37.0
Assists 16.1 / 15.2 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.7 / 1.9 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 44.0 38.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 64.4 / 61.3 60.0 / 30.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 36.6 46.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.1 / 3.7 8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 17.2 / 15.5 10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CIN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MSM
CIN
MSM
ML
67% 22-11
53% 17-15
74% 23-8
61% 19-12
ATS
64% 21-12
62% 20-12
74% 23-8
61% 19-12
TTL
67% 22-11
81% 26-6
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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