Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Owls USF @ KENN

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

2-1  |  Road

108
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 2:00 PM ET
KSU Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

OWLSKENN

3-0  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
OWLS
0%
BULLS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Kennesaw State)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 OwlsKENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

4.5%

Owls Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KENN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

USF By 1-7 points

3.3%

USF By 8-14 points

0.6%

KENN By 1-7 points

12.2%

KENN By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
65
SOUTH FLORIDA
82
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH FLORIDA
75
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Owls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u176.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u176.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 USF @ KENN 108 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +17.0% more
Kennesaw State: 48.6 vs South Florida: 41.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.0%
Kennesaw State: 41.0% vs South Florida: 28.0%
Assists (L5) +11.5% more
Kennesaw State: 17.6 vs South Florida: 15.8
Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Kennesaw State: 51.1% vs South Florida: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 65.0 108
KENN Score 82.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 28.0 24.0 / 40.0
Assists 17.6 / 15.8 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.9 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 45.5 39.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 64.3 / 71.6 64.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 48.6 / 41.5 45.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.5 / 11.2 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 10.6 14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
KENN
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
KENN
15-16-1 (48.4%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
KENN
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
USF
KENN
USF
ML
74% 25-9
61% 20-13
72% 23-9
52% 16-15
ATS
71% 24-10
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
52% 16-15
TTL
56% 19-15
52% 17-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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