AKRON
ZIPSAKR
3-0 | Road
79
PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
3-0 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
ZIPS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
0%
ZIPS
--
BOILERMAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
AKR By 1-7 points
18.6%
AKR By 8-14 points
8.0%
PUR By 1-7 points
27.2%
PUR By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Akron
71
AKRON
Purdue
76
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Akron
63
AKRON
Purdue
82
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (+19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 16, 2025
AKR @ PUR
79 - 97
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Purdue: 39.6%
vs
Akron: 33.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
Purdue: 73.4%
vs
Akron: 69.7%
Steals (L5)
+59.2% more
Akron: 9.3
vs
Purdue: 3.8
Blocks (L5)
+53.2% more
Akron: 5.4
vs
Purdue: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AKR Score
71.0
79
PUR Score
76.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 33.6
39.0 / 39.0
Assists
18.2 / 21.7
20.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.5 / 5.4
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 47.4
52.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 69.7
78.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
41.9 / 46.9
45.0 / 26.0
Steals
3.8 / 9.3
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
8.4 / 8.9
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
Advantage
29-6-0
(82.9%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
PUR
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +0.2
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
AKR
PUR
AKR
ML
67%
26-13
71%
24-10
66%
25-13
65%
22-12
ATS
64%
25-14
76%
26-8
66%
25-13
65%
22-12
TTL
51%
20-19
59%
20-14
100%
38-0
100%
34-0
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