Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Irish @ Buckeyes ND @ OSU

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

3-0  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 12:30 PM ET
Value City Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

3-0  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
📊
BUCKEYES
100%
FIGHTING IRISH --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Notre Dame)
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

98.6%

Buckeyes Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ND -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-7 points

5.8%

ND By 8-14 points

15.3%

OSU By 1-7 points

1.1%

OSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
90
NOTRE DAME
68
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
70
NOTRE DAME
75
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 ND @ OSU 63 - 64
Dec 8, 2020 OSU @ ND 90 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.5% more
Notre Dame: 1.7 vs Ohio State: 1.2
Steals (L5) +16.8% more
Notre Dame: 6.0 vs Ohio State: 5.0
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Notre Dame: 40.7 vs Ohio State: 36.4
Assists (L5) +23.9% more
Ohio State: 16.5 vs Notre Dame: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 90.0 63
OSU Score 68.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 37.1 30.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.5 / 13.3 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.2 / 1.7 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 46.6 38.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 72.3 83.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 40.7 28.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.0 / 6.0 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 11.0 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
OSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
ND
OSU
ND
ML
53% 18-16
65% 20-11
73% 24-9
77% 24-7
ATS
59% 20-14
55% 17-14
73% 24-9
77% 24-7
TTL
56% 19-15
68% 21-10
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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