Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Cardinals LR @ BALL

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

1-2  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

2-1  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
TROJANS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Ball State)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

3.6%

Cardinals Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BALL -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

LR By 1-7 points

2.7%

LR By 8-14 points

0.5%

BALL By 1-7 points

10.7%

BALL By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
63
LITTLE ROCK
81
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
68
LITTLE ROCK
72
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-2) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 LR @ BALL 68 - 62
Nov 28, 2023 BALL @ LR 64 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +8.9% more
Ball State: 3.4 vs Little Rock: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Ball State: 63.5% vs Little Rock: 61.6%
Turnovers (L5) +23.8% more
Little Rock: 16.5 vs Ball State: 12.6
Assists (L5) +15.9% more
Little Rock: 13.8 vs Ball State: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 63.0 68
BALL Score 81.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 40.4 33.0 / 58.0
Assists 11.6 / 13.8 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.1 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 42.9 45.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 63.5 / 61.6 68.0 / 45.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 31.5 18.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.8 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 16.5 15.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
LR
BALL
LR
ML
43% 13-17
52% 16-15
62% 18-11
68% 17-8
ATS
67% 20-10
45% 14-17
62% 18-11
68% 17-8
TTL
50% 15-15
58% 18-13
100% 29-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 2 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 6 hours, 5 minutes ago
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 6 hours, 7 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 48 minutes ago