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NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

0-3  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 5:30 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

2-1  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
COLONELS --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Murray State)
ColonelsNICH (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

21.2%

Racers Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

NICH By 1-7 points

13.7%

NICH By 8-14 points

4.8%

MUR By 1-7 points

25.3%

MUR By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
NICHOLLS
81
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
71
NICHOLLS
78
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 NICH @ MUR 79 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +86.2% more
Murray State: 17.6 vs Nicholls: 9.5
Free Throw % (L5) +13.6%
Murray State: 75.5% vs Nicholls: 61.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Murray State: 45.2% vs Nicholls: 36.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Murray State: 33.3% vs Nicholls: 29.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 73.0 79
MUR Score 81.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 29.4 55.0 / 33.0
Assists 17.6 / 9.5 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.4 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 36.9 58.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 61.9 83.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 34.7 38.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.6 9.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 12.9 20.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
NICH
MUR
NICH
ML
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
68% 19-9
ATS
52% 17-16
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
68% 19-9
TTL
70% 23-10
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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