SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
3-1 | Road
60
UNC WILMINGTON
SEAHAWKSUNCW
1-1 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
SEAHAWKS
0%
SPARTANS
--
SEAHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-55.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +55.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCW -55.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)
UPST By 1-7 points
0.0%
UPST By 8-14 points
0.0%
UNCW By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNCW By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
South Carolina Upstate
57
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
UNC Wilmington
112
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
South Carolina Upstate
63
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
UNC Wilmington
76
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seahawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks (-14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -55.0
D
Sim
Seahawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
UPST @ UNCW
60 - 73
Nov 15, 2024
UNCW @ UPST
89 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.7%
UNC Wilmington: 75.3%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 68.7%
Steals (L5)
+53.2% more
South Carolina Upstate: 10.3
vs
UNC Wilmington: 4.8
Blocks (L5)
+37.2% more
South Carolina Upstate: 4.3
vs
UNC Wilmington: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+23.0% more
South Carolina Upstate: 13.0
vs
UNC Wilmington: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UPST Score
57.0
60
UNCW Score
112.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 38.9
29.0 / 26.0
Assists
15.2 / 17.5
8.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.3
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 51.5
43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 68.7
75.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 44.1
42.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.8 / 10.3
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 13.0
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UNCW
Advantage
27-7-0
(79.4%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UNCW
Advantage
16-14-2
(53.3%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
UPST
UNCW
UPST
ML
64%
21-12
61%
19-12
52%
17-16
83%
25-5
ATS
58%
19-14
61%
19-12
52%
17-16
83%
25-5
TTL
61%
20-13
52%
16-15
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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