Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Lions @ Commodores UAPB @ VAN

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

0-5  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:00 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

4-0  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
100%
📊
COMMODORES
0%
GOLDEN LIONS --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

9.7%

Commodores Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

UAPB By 1-7 points

6.8%

UAPB By 8-14 points

1.7%

VAN By 1-7 points

18.6%

VAN By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
36
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
49
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
59
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
82
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UAPB @ VAN 75 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +77.3% more
Vanderbilt: 4.5 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 2.6
Assists (L5) +45.4% more
Vanderbilt: 17.4 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 12.0
Steals (L5) +36.5% more
Vanderbilt: 9.9 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 7.2
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
Vanderbilt: 37.5 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 33.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 36.0 75
VAN Score 49.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 29.8 32.0 / 42.0
Assists 17.4 / 12.0 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.5 / 2.6 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 40.2 48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 80.0 76.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 33.4 49.0 / 28.0
Steals 9.9 / 7.2 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 14.9 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
7%MONEY93%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
UAPB
VAN
UAPB
ML
69% 25-11
74% 23-8
56% 18-14
73% 19-7
ATS
78% 28-8
73% 22-8-1
56% 18-14
73% 19-7
TTL
58% 21-15
68% 21-10
100% 32-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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