Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thundering Herd @ Cavaliers MRSH @ UVA

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

3-0  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

3-0  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
THUNDERING HERD --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Virginia)
Thundering HerdMRSH (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thundering Herd Cover

0.6%

Cavaliers Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

MRSH By 1-7 points

0.5%

MRSH By 8-14 points

0.1%

UVA By 1-7 points

3.3%

UVA By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
50
MARSHALL
75
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
58
MARSHALL
65
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 MRSH @ UVA 78 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +17.3% more
Virginia: 8.1 vs Marshall: 6.9
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Virginia: 71.3% vs Marshall: 69.5%
Turnovers (L5) +25.8% more
Marshall: 14.6 vs Virginia: 10.8
Assists (L5) +15.0% more
Marshall: 20.7 vs Virginia: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 50.0 78
UVA Score 75.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 40.4 43.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.6 / 20.7 18.0 / 14.0
Blocks 8.1 / 6.9 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 48.5 52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 69.5 72.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 41.7 / 39.4 38.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.5 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 14.6 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
UVA Advantage
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
MRSH
UVA
MRSH
ML
67% 24-12
70% 21-9
72% 26-10
62% 18-11
ATS
75% 27-9
70% 21-9
72% 26-10
62% 18-11
TTL
53% 19-17
50% 15-15
100% 36-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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