DETROIT MERCY
TITANSDETM
1-2 | Road
83
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
1-2 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
TITANS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Toledo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)
DETM By 1-7 points
0.1%
DETM By 8-14 points
0.0%
TOL By 1-7 points
1.4%
TOL By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit Mercy
60
DETROIT MERCY
Toledo
89
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Detroit Mercy
65
DETROIT MERCY
Toledo
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
DETM @ TOL
83 - 90
Nov 16, 2024
TOL @ DETM
82 - 67
Nov 6, 2023
DETM @ TOL
60 - 94
Nov 13, 2021
DETM @ TOL
73 - 81
Dec 14, 2019
TOL @ DETM
80 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.0%
Toledo: 78.0%
vs
Detroit Mercy: 62.9%
Steals (L5)
+14.0% more
Toledo: 8.4
vs
Detroit Mercy: 7.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.8%
Toledo: 39.6%
vs
Detroit Mercy: 28.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Toledo: 49.2%
vs
Detroit Mercy: 42.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DETM Score
60.0
83
TOL Score
89.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 28.8
28.0 / 32.0
Assists
14.2 / 14.4
20.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.8 / 3.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 42.9
53.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 62.9
70.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
30.6 / 41.3
39.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.4 / 7.4
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 12.8
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DETM
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-: +3.7
TOL
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DETM
Advantage
20-9-1
(69.0%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-: +3.7
TOL
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DETM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +0.3
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
DETM
TOL
DETM
ML
48%
16-17
58%
18-13
61%
20-13
50%
15-15
ATS
48%
16-17
61%
19-12
61%
20-13
50%
15-15
TTL
64%
21-12
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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