Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dolphins @ Keydets JAX @ VMI

JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

1-2  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Cameron Hall
View Odds Details →

VMI

KEYDETSVMI

3-1  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
0%
📊
KEYDETS
100%
DOLPHINS --
KEYDETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Jacksonville)
DolphinsJAX (-3.5) 0 KeydetsVMI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

69.1%

Keydets Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JAX -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-7 points

27.2%

JAX By 8-14 points

23.0%

VMI By 1-7 points

18.6%

VMI By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
67
JACKSONVILLE
62
VMI
Simulated Score
68
JACKSONVILLE
72
VMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Keydets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Keydets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 JAX @ VMI 69 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
Jacksonville: 12.9 vs VMI: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Jacksonville: 45.7% vs VMI: 41.5%
Blocks (L5) +45.9% more
VMI: 5.6 vs Jacksonville: 3.9
Steals (L5) +27.2% more
VMI: 9.3 vs Jacksonville: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 67.0 69
VMI Score 62.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 29.9 38.0 / 40.0
Assists 14.9 / 15.2 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.6 / 3.9 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 45.7 45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 63.4 82.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 44.2 / 40.7 28.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.3 / 7.3 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 12.9 15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
VMI
6-26-0 (18.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
VMI
9-20-0 (31.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VMI
JAX
VMI
JAX
ML
53% 17-15
74% 23-8
84% 27-5
60% 18-12
ATS
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
84% 27-5
61% 19-12
TTL
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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