Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Mustangs BUT @ SMU

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

3-0  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 2:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

3-0  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
BULLDOGS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (SMU)
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

27.4%

Mustangs Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

BUT By 1-7 points

16.9%

BUT By 8-14 points

6.8%

SMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SMU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
86
BUTLER
92
SMU
Simulated Score
70
BUTLER
75
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 BUT @ SMU 85 - 87
Nov 15, 2024 SMU @ BUT 70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.2%
SMU: 76.9% vs Butler: 69.7%
Blocks (L5) +22.0% more
Butler: 5.1 vs SMU: 4.0
Turnovers (L5) +18.2% more
Butler: 13.2 vs SMU: 10.8
Assists (L5) +14.1% more
Butler: 18.4 vs SMU: 15.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 86.0 85
SMU Score 92.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 38.2 31.0 / 45.0
Assists 15.8 / 18.4 18.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 50.3 56.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 69.7 73.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 42.7 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.8 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 13.2 16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
BUT
SMU
BUT
ML
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
65% 20-11
ATS
62% 21-13
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
65% 20-11
TTL
56% 19-15
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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