Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Governors @ Spartans APSU @ UNCG

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

2-1  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 2:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

0-3  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
GOVERNORS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
GovernorsAPSU (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Governors Cover

0.2%

Spartans Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCG -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

APSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

APSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNCG By 1-7 points

1.4%

UNCG By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
58
AUSTIN PEAY
87
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
69
AUSTIN PEAY
73
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 APSU @ UNCG 69 - 63
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
UNC Greensboro: 33.7% vs Austin Peay: 31.7%
Steals (L5) +67.7% more
Austin Peay: 11.8 vs UNC Greensboro: 3.8
Blocks (L5) +21.9% more
Austin Peay: 3.0 vs UNC Greensboro: 2.3
Assists (L5) +21.2% more
Austin Peay: 14.4 vs UNC Greensboro: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 58.0 69
UNCG Score 87.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 31.7 25.0 / 28.0
Assists 11.4 / 14.4 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.0 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.6 / 44.7 39.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 65.0 / 71.3 63.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 35.8 35.0 / 43.0
Steals 3.8 / 11.8 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 13.5 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
APSU
UNCG
APSU
ML
38% 13-21
53% 16-14
71% 24-10
59% 16-11
ATS
44% 15-19
57% 17-13
71% 24-10
59% 16-11
TTL
76% 26-8
57% 17-13
100% 34-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Michigan State Lands Five-Star Point Guard Antonio Pemberton: Wh…
yahoo 2 weeks, 6 days ago
Brady Pretzlaff's Long Road Back to Spartan Stadium: A Promise F…
yahoo 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Virginia Set for Friday Night Blowout Against Norfolk State, Ana…
si 4 weeks ago
Former Michigan State Forward Jaxon Kohler Finds New Home at BYU
newspub_live 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Dec 6, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Duke Blue Devils cente…
si 2 months, 1 week ago