Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Bulldogs SELA @ MSST

SE LOUISIANA

LIONSSELA

0-3  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

1-1  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
LIONS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Mississippi State)
LionsSELA (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

11.5%

Bulldogs Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

SELA By 1-7 points

8.0%

SELA By 8-14 points

2.2%

MSST By 1-7 points

20.1%

MSST By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
65
SE LOUISIANA
77
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
58
SE LOUISIANA
82
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 SELA @ MSST 68 - 75
Nov 12, 2024 SELA @ MSST 59 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +144.8% more
Mississippi State: 3.6 vs SE Louisiana: 1.5
Assists (L5) +36.5% more
Mississippi State: 14.2 vs SE Louisiana: 10.4
Rebounding (L5) +23.5% more
Mississippi State: 39.3 vs SE Louisiana: 31.8
Field Goal % (L5) +11.2%
Mississippi State: 46.6% vs SE Louisiana: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 65.0 68
MSST Score 77.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 26.5 38.0 / 16.0
Assists 14.2 / 10.4 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.5 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 35.4 45.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 70.6 70.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 31.8 43.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.9 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 13.7 16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
2%MONEY98%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -1.4
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
SELA
MSST
SELA
ML
66% 21-11
70% 21-9
55% 17-14
66% 19-10
ATS
56% 18-14
60% 18-12
55% 17-14
67% 20-10
TTL
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Alabama's Keelon Russell Silences Doubters with Explosive Perfor…
si 5 days ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 12 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 1 hour ago
Rutgers Lands Four-Star Forward Brandon Woodard for 2027 Class
yahoo 1 week, 1 day ago
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…
si 1 week, 3 days ago