ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
2-2 | Road
84
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
1-2 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
REDHAWKS
100%
TOMMIES
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STMN -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
STMN By 1-7 points
0.3%
STMN By 8-14 points
1.7%
SEMO By 1-7 points
0.0%
SEMO By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
78
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Southeast Missouri State
43
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
68
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Southeast Missouri State
71
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tommies (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Redhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
STMN @ SEMO
84 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.7%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 76.8%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 70.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 32.4%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 29.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 47.7%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 44.8%
Blocks (L5)
+47.4% more
Southeast Missouri State: 3.4
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STMN Score
78.0
84
SEMO Score
43.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 32.4
28.0 / 44.0
Assists
15.5 / 16.5
11.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.3
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 47.7
45.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 76.8
58.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 27.8
27.0 / 29.0
Steals
9.2 / 9.3
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 8.7
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SEMO
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
STMN
SEMO
STMN
ML
64%
21-12
64%
21-12
50%
15-15
64%
21-12
ATS
67%
22-11
70%
23-10
50%
15-15
64%
21-12
TTL
58%
19-14
61%
20-13
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
