MORGAN STATE
BEARSMORG
1-2 | Road
72
MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
2-2 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
LAKERS
0%
BEARS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)
MORG By 1-7 points
1.7%
MORG By 8-14 points
0.3%
MERC By 1-7 points
8.0%
MERC By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Morgan State
72
MORGAN STATE
Mercyhurst
92
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
Morgan State
68
MORGAN STATE
Mercyhurst
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lakers (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
MORG @ MERC
72 - 86
Nov 6, 2024
MERC @ MORG
78 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+27.3% more
Mercyhurst: 16.8
vs
Morgan State: 13.2
Blocks (L5)
+31.3% more
Morgan State: 3.8
vs
Mercyhurst: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+13.5% more
Morgan State: 13.2
vs
Mercyhurst: 11.4
Rebounding (L5)
+9.2% more
Morgan State: 35.9
vs
Mercyhurst: 32.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MORG Score
72.0
72
MERC Score
92.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 37.0
43.0 / 22.0
Assists
16.8 / 13.2
25.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.8
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 45.4
53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
69.2 / 75.9
61.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 35.9
30.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.6 / 7.1
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 13.2
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG
14-12-1
(53.8%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7%
Total +/-: +2.5
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
MORG
MERC
MORG
ML
59%
20-14
50%
14-14
79%
26-7
58%
14-10
ATS
62%
21-13
50%
14-14
79%
26-7
58%
14-10
TTL
53%
18-16
50%
14-14
100%
33-0
100%
24-0
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