IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
2-1 | Road
67
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
3-0 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
100%
TRITONS
0%
VANDALS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
IDHO By 1-7 points
1.1%
IDHO By 8-14 points
0.1%
UCSD By 1-7 points
5.8%
UCSD By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho
57
IDAHO
UC San Diego
79
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Idaho
69
IDAHO
UC San Diego
74
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tritons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tritons (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
IDHO @ UCSD
67 - 75
Dec 15, 2024
UCSD @ IDHO
80 - 56
Nov 24, 2023
UCSD @ IDHO
70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+40.6% more
UC San Diego: 8.1
vs
Idaho: 5.7
Blocks (L5)
+28.1% more
UC San Diego: 2.8
vs
Idaho: 2.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
UC San Diego: 48.4%
vs
Idaho: 44.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.6%
Idaho: 79.5%
vs
UC San Diego: 65.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score
57.0
67
UCSD Score
79.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 34.3
29.0 / 34.0
Assists
15.3 / 15.1
17.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.2
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 44.9
48.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
65.8 / 79.5
79.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 41.1
35.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.1 / 5.7
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 13.8
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
IDHO
UCSD
IDHO
ML
56%
19-15
56%
20-16
65%
22-12
64%
21-12
ATS
50%
17-17
58%
21-15
65%
22-12
64%
21-12
TTL
62%
21-13
69%
25-11
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
