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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

1-3  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 4:00 PM ET
ExtraMile Arena
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

2-1  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
BOBCATS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Boise State)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

0.6%

Broncos Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

MTST By 1-7 points

0.5%

MTST By 8-14 points

0.1%

BOIS By 1-7 points

3.3%

BOIS By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
41
MONTANA STATE
66
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
67
MONTANA STATE
74
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 MTST @ BOIS 58 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +43.2% more
Boise State: 17.0 vs Montana State: 11.8
Rebounding (L5) +23.1% more
Boise State: 37.6 vs Montana State: 30.5
Turnovers (L5) +12.9% more
Boise State: 13.2 vs Montana State: 11.7
Free Throw % (L5) +12.0%
Boise State: 77.9% vs Montana State: 65.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 41.0 58
BOIS Score 66.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 33.7 29.0 / 31.0
Assists 17.0 / 11.8 10.0 / 6.0
Blocks 1.5 / 2.3 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 50.3 33.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 65.9 91.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 30.5 35.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.2 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 11.7 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
BOIS
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
MTST
BOIS
MTST
ML
50% 16-16
52% 16-15
61% 19-12
67% 20-10
ATS
50% 16-16
52% 16-15
61% 19-12
67% 20-10
TTL
56% 18-14
65% 20-11
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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