Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Mavericks MOST @ UTA

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

2-1  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 6:00 PM ET
College Park Center
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

2-1  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
BEARS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

46.0%

Mavericks Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

MOST By 1-7 points

26.2%

MOST By 8-14 points

16.9%

UTA By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MISSOURI STATE
64
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
66
MISSOURI STATE
71
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 MOST @ UTA 49 - 67
Nov 19, 2024 UTA @ MOST 68 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
Missouri State: 70.0% vs UT Arlington: 61.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Missouri State: 31.1% vs UT Arlington: 27.6%
Blocks (L5) +68.9% more
UT Arlington: 5.0 vs Missouri State: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +29.4% more
UT Arlington: 15.2 vs Missouri State: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 65.0 49
UTA Score 64.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.6 / 31.1 41.0 / 7.0
Assists 18.8 / 17.2 21.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.0 / 2.9 7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 46.9 44.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 61.0 / 70.0 35.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 47.2 / 39.5 42.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.3 / 7.2 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 11.7 15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTA
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
MOST
UTA
MOST
ML
50% 16-16
65% 22-12
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
ATS
59% 19-13
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
TTL
53% 17-15
44% 15-19
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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