Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Wildcats BGSU @ DAV

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

3-0  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 6:00 PM ET
John M. Belk Arena
View Odds Details →

DAVIDSON

WILDCATSDAV

3-0  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
FALCONS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
DAVIDSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Davidson)
FalconsBGSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsDAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

3.6%

Wildcats Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAV -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAV)

BGSU By 1-7 points

2.7%

BGSU By 8-14 points

0.5%

DAV By 1-7 points

10.7%

DAV By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
71
BOWLING GREEN
89
DAVIDSON
Simulated Score
71
BOWLING GREEN
78
DAVIDSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 BGSU @ DAV 87 - 91
Nov 8, 2024 DAV @ BGSU 91 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.0% more
Davidson: 4.4 vs Bowling Green: 2.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Davidson: 40.7% vs Bowling Green: 35.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Davidson: 48.9% vs Bowling Green: 47.3%
Steals (L5) +53.3% more
Bowling Green: 13.8 vs Davidson: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 71.0 87
DAV Score 89.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 35.0 48.0 / 21.0
Assists 15.1 / 15.0 17.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.7 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 47.3 54.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 79.0 74.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 30.5 / 38.2 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.5 / 13.8 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 11.4 18.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAV Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAV
13-17-2 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAV
BGSU
DAV
BGSU
ML
64% 21-12
66% 21-11
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
ATS
48% 16-17
72% 23-9
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
TTL
52% 17-16
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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