Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Flyers BCU @ DAY

BETHUNE-COOKMAN

WILDCATSBCU

1-2  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:30 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

2-1  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
WILDCATS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Dayton)
WildcatsBCU (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

8.1%

Flyers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

BCU By 1-7 points

5.8%

BCU By 8-14 points

1.4%

DAY By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAY By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
56
BETHUNE-COOKMAN
70
DAYTON
Simulated Score
58
BETHUNE-COOKMAN
82
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 BCU @ DAY 82 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.2%
Dayton: 73.6% vs Bethune-Cookman: 65.4%
Assists (L5) +22.1% more
Bethune-Cookman: 17.8 vs Dayton: 13.8
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Bethune-Cookman: 12.6 vs Dayton: 9.9
Rebounding (L5) +19.2% more
Bethune-Cookman: 39.1 vs Dayton: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BCU Score 56.0 82
DAY Score 70.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.1 / 35.8 58.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.8 / 17.8 19.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.1 / 5.0 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 47.0 54.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 65.4 81.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 39.1 36.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.7 / 9.0 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 12.6 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BCU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BCU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BCU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.3
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
BCU
DAY
BCU
ML
65% 24-13
68% 21-10
64% 23-13
79% 22-6
ATS
68% 25-12
65% 20-11
64% 23-13
79% 22-6
TTL
57% 21-16
48% 15-16
100% 36-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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