Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Mavericks SUU @ OMA

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

1-2  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Baxter Arena
View Odds Details →

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

0-3  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OMAHA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Omaha)
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 MavericksOMA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

15.9%

Mavericks Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OMA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OMA)

SUU By 1-7 points

10.7%

SUU By 8-14 points

3.3%

OMA By 1-7 points

23.0%

OMA By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SOUTHERN UTAH
83
OMAHA
Simulated Score
70
SOUTHERN UTAH
73
OMAHA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 SUU @ OMA 85 - 90
Nov 16, 2024 OMA @ SUU 73 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.2% more
Omaha: 8.0 vs Southern Utah: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Omaha: 32.6% vs Southern Utah: 28.8%
Blocks (L5) +72.5% more
Southern Utah: 6.5 vs Omaha: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +33.0% more
Southern Utah: 45.7 vs Omaha: 30.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 73.0 85
OMA Score 83.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 28.8 53.0 / 25.0
Assists 11.6 / 17.1 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.8 / 6.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 44.6 50.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 73.7 80.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 45.7 36.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.0 / 5.5 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 15.2 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
OMA Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OMA
SUU
OMA
SUU
ML
79% 26-7
61% 19-12
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
ATS
76% 25-8
71% 22-9
67% 22-11
69% 22-10
TTL
73% 24-9
52% 16-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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