Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Wildcats DUQ @ VILL

DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

3-0  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Finneran Pavilion
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

2-1  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
DUKES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Duquesne)
DukesDUQ (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

96.4%

Wildcats Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUQ -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)

DUQ By 1-7 points

10.7%

DUQ By 8-14 points

21.6%

VILL By 1-7 points

2.7%

VILL By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
74
DUQUESNE
56
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
63
DUQUESNE
74
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dukes (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 DUQ @ VILL 77 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.5% more
Duquesne: 3.4 vs Villanova: 1.9
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
Duquesne: 13.7 vs Villanova: 10.2
Assists (L5) +10.8% more
Villanova: 18.1 vs Duquesne: 16.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
Villanova: 35.8% vs Duquesne: 26.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 74.0 77
VILL Score 56.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 26.3 38.0 / 52.0
Assists 18.1 / 16.3 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.9 / 3.4 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 48.1 44.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 68.1 / 65.7 76.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 38.9 41.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.1 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 13.7 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
DUQ
VILL
DUQ
ML
44% 14-18
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
58% 18-13
ATS
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
58% 18-13
TTL
41% 13-19
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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